Mine or Buy
v0.1Honest math for Bitcoin treasury decisions. 4-year horizon, one halving cycle.
Your Business
Mining Setup
BTC Price Assumption
Power Law
Giovanni Santostasi's Power Law fit: price scales with (time since genesis)^5.8. Fifteen-plus years of BTC price action follow this trajectory closely. At current BTC age, this implies roughly 25-35% forward CAGR over 4 years, decaying slowly as the asset matures. The base-case scenario if BTC keeps doing what BTC has always done.
Network Difficulty
Baseline
Moderate forward growth consistent with steady-state periods between major hashrate events. The default assumption when no clear acceleration or slowdown signal is visible in recent retargets.
Recent signal: -21.0% / yr annualized from next retarget prediction — aligns with
4-year verdictMine wins sats
+0.482BTC+$131,589 post-tax
Over 4 years, on identical pre-tax dollars committed to each path.
Mine vs Buy, 4-year horizon
MetricMine + OpsLump + DCA
Units / initial outlay23.4 · $100,000$78,000
Tax shield refund (Sec 179)$38,889—
Total committed (4 yr)$321,441$321,441
Ongoing hosting / DCA per year$55,360$55,360
BTC stack2.63252.1502
Terminal USD (pre-tax)$687,391$544,458
Terminal USD (post-liquidation)$617,301$485,711
Hardware resale (yr 4)$20,833—
§1245 recapture tax−$5,833—
LTCG on BTC gain−$64,257−$58,747
Active Assumptions
BTC price today$75,539
Network hashrate972 EH/s
Next retarget (~14d)-0.90%
Annualized (26 retargets)-21.0%
Price modelPower Law
Difficulty growth15% → 8%
Data sourcecoingecko · mempool.space
Reference
BTC hurdle (cash → BTC today)3.319
Mine hosting (4yr total)$221,441
Hosting rate$0.0780/kWh
ASICBitmain S21 XP
OpEx modeoperating_cash